Saturday, August 26, 2006

2006 Fantasy Football Projections, An Overview

The following tables provide a comparison of fantasy football projections for the 2006 NFL season.

There are 5 tables for each position:

1. An overview table, comparing the aggregrated projections of CBS Sportsline, FOX, and Yahoo. This table contains any player at that position projected by a system.

2. An overview table, comparing the aggregrated projections of CBS Sportsline, FOX, and Yahoo. This table only contains players at that position projected by all 3 systems.

3. A table detailing CBS Sportsline's projected statistics for that position in 2006.

4. A table detailing FOX Sports' projected statistics for that position in 2006.

5. A table detailing the Yahoo's projected statistics for that position in 2006.


A guide to the table categories:


PreRank: the default rank of the player in the given projection.
SimPts: the number of points the RB is projected to score under a simplified Yahoo system, crediting 6 points per passing, rushing, or receiving touchdown, 1 point for every 20 rushing yards, and 1 point for every 20 receiving yards.
SimRank: the rank of the player in the given projection under the simplified Yahoo scoring system.


Projection sources (so far):
CBS Sportsline (CBS)
Fox Sports (FOX)
Yahoo

A few brief comments (text in red reflects updates to the projections):
  • Important: all of the projections seen here are available for free elsewhere on the Internet.
  • All projections were downloaded on August 7th. This means that Mike Bell was unranked, that Kevan Barlow was on the 49ers, that Ashley Lelie was on the Broncos, and that T.J. Duckett was on the Falcons.
  • The services' projections have changed since then. FOX, especially, has altered its projections for ALL players; to take one minor example, Kyle Boller, previously projected for 440 passing yards and 7 rushing yards, now (August 31st) is projected for 437 passing yards and 9 rushing yards. I guess FOX is constantly updating its projection formulas.
  • Yahoo loves Mark Brunell and Jake Plummer, projecting them to have career-best seasons. I think Yahoo takes the completion percentage and TD-INT ratio from the previous season and bases the rest of its QB projections around those; it would explain Brunell and Plummer, and also Eli Manning's low projection.
  • FOX loves Tiki Barber, predicting that he'll score 16 rushing TDs (7 more than last year). CBS and Yahoo are far more conservative, though Barber is in the top-5 for both.
  • Yahoo projects Shaun Alexander to score 27 TDs, just 1 fewer than his record 28 of last year. (Not anymore: the latest projection has Alexander scoring 22 TDs.)
  • FOX's RB projections are (were?) generally higher than the other two.

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